An Assessment on Global Power Struggle
Introduction: The False Choice That Dooms Us All
The world stands at a precipice. On one side lies democratic global governance, a world in which the professional tribes that already operate across borders (military, scientific, medical, intelligence, police, educational, legal, journalistic) unite to build a sovereign global authority accountable to all people. On the other side lies a world of oligarchic control, permanent surveillance, climate collapse, and endless war, a world ruled by a transnational elite that owns the capital, writes the rules, and answers to no one.
The elite has convinced the world that the only alternative to unipolar hegemony is a “multipolar” order, a world of competing great powers, regional blocs, and renewed nationalism. This is a lie. Multipolarity is not a threat to the global elite. It is the elite’s preferred operating environment. A world of fragmented governance, permanent arms races, nuclear anarchy, and climate paralysis is a world in which transnational capital faces no effective constraints. It is a world in which the ultra-rich can shelter their wealth in offshore jurisdictions, profit from every conflict, and evade every attempt at democratic accountability.
This paper argues that the professional tribes must reject the multipolar trap and instead assert their functional authority to build democratic global governance. They must do so not out of idealism, but out of necessity. If they fail, they will endure a world of dangerous surveillance, destabilised climate, and the constant threat of mass annihilation. The elite will try to prevent this because it threatens their regional control and power. But the elite is few, and the tribes are many. The war is already underway. The only question is whether the tribes will fight it as fragmented, co-opted servants of oligarchy, or as the united professions of a democratic global civilisation.
I. The Enemy Is Not a Nation. It Is a Class.
The old Western-led order of statesmen, diplomats, and international law is not dying. It is being executed by a new power elite, a transnational amalgam of autocrats, oligarchs, and tech billionaires who are cynical, ruthless, and contemptuous of the rule of law and the norms of democratic politics. This is not a conspiracy theory. It is a documented coup.
Oxfam has demonstrated that an ultra-rich elite is using extreme concentration of wealth to capture democratic systems by shaping laws, media, technology, taxation, and public policy in its favour. The Transnational Institute has mapped a “global, silent coup d’état” in which governance that used to be done by nations is now increasingly performed by unaccountable bodies dominated by corporations. The top 12 billionaires now hold more wealth than the poorest 50 per cent of the world’s population. This is not inequality. It is a declaration of war against the very possibility of democratic global governance.
The elite does not fear a “world government.” The elite is a world government, an oligarchic one, answerable to no electorate, restrained by no constitution, accountable only to itself. What it fears is a democratic one.
II. The Tribes Are Already Global. They Are Just Not United Enough To Push for Global Governance.
The professional tribes, military, scientific, medical, intelligence, police, educational, legal, journalistic, already possess the transnational networks, the technical expertise, and the functional interdependence that could form the skeleton of a democratic global governance. They have been building it for decades, largely without realising what they were building.
II. The Tribes Are Already Global. They Are Not United Enough To Push for Democratic Global Governance
The professional tribes, military, scientific, medical, intelligence, police, educational, legal, and journalistic, already possess the transnational networks, the technical expertise, and the functional interdependence that could form the skeleton of a democratic global governance. They have been building it for decades, largely without realising what they were building. What follows is not a description of what might be. It is a description of what already is, and of what the elite has done to ensure that these global networks serve oligarchy rather than democracy.
The Military
The Five Eyes alliance is not merely an intelligence-sharing club. It is one of the world's most comprehensive military-intelligence partnerships, born out of wartime cooperation between British and American codebreakers and sustained by trust, technological advantage, and shared strategic interests. Today, it spans the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, and its operations include geographic surveillance, signals intelligence sharing, and joint military planning. Military spending has increased in all five Five Eyes nations, with much of this linked to rising geopolitical tensions and the rise of AI in weapon systems.
But the Five Eyes is only the visible tip of a much larger iceberg. The functionalist logic of military integration was articulated as early as 1946, when a "world force" composed of national contingents supplied by large powers was proposed to overwhelm any violator of the international code. The security dilemma, the spiral of fear and arms racing that makes all nations less secure, can be abolished by integrating militaries into one common global organisation under one common command. NATO is an approximate example of this ideal in a geographically limited space. The military already knows this. It simply lacks the political will, because the political class is owned by the elite.
The elite does not want a united global army. It wants a hundred competing armies, all buying weapons from the same handful of contractors. Global military spending reached approximately $2.887 trillion in 2025, the eleventh consecutive year of growth. Defence company stocks reached record highs, generating $25 to $30 billion in profits while thousands of people died. The corporate and political elites exploit war for their own gain: ordinary people paid with their lives, wealth, and future, while politicians and weapons corporations grew fabulously rich. The military-industrial complex does not simply profit from conflict. It prepares for it, profits from it, and then calls the result realism.
The military tribe has a choice. It can continue to serve as the armed wing of an oligarchic world order, fighting wars for resources and strategic advantage that enrich the few and kill the many. Or it can assert its functional authority as the legitimate basis for a democratic global governance, refusing to fight wars for the elite, demanding a unified command answerable to a global democratic assembly, and using its institutional weight to break the cycle of permanent war. The military already knows this. It simply lacks the political will, because the political class is owned by the elite.
The Scientists
The International Science Council is the largest international non-governmental science organisation of its kind. It brings together over 250 organisations, including international scientific unions from the natural and social sciences, national and regional scientific organisations, and research councils. Its vision is of science as a global public good. Its mission is to be the global voice for science, a trusted voice that speaks for the value of all science, everywhere. It explicitly works to strengthen international collaboration and promote the role of science in global governance, with science diplomacy as a core priority.
But the scientists' most powerful instrument is not the ISC. It is the Planetary Boundaries framework. Developed by an international team of twenty-eight scientists led by Johan Rockström at the Stockholm Resilience Centre, the framework describes nine Earth-system processes that together define a "safe operating space" for humanity. Scientists now estimate that seven of these nine boundaries, including climate change, biodiversity loss, and ocean acidification, have already been breached. Each boundary translates to a finite budget that the world must operate within, requiring strengthened global governance. The framework has been adopted by businesses and informed policy across the world.
This is a de facto scientific government of the biosphere, a set of thresholds that no nation can unilaterally ignore without threatening the whole. The Montreal Protocol demonstrated that planetary boundary governance is possible when the scientific evidence is clear and international cooperation is effective. But the Montreal Protocol addressed a single boundary. The current crisis spans all nine. The scientists have the epistemic authority to declare that the current trajectory is not merely unjust but physically impossible. They have the data, the models, and the moral clarity. What they lack is the enforcement power that only a democratic global sovereign could provide.
The elite has neutralised the scientific tribe not by attacking it but by co-opting it. Scientists are invited to advisory panels, consulted on policy, and feted at Davos, while their warnings are ignored and their recommendations are watered down. The fossil fuel industry funds climate denial research. The pharmaceutical industry funds drug trials designed to produce favourable results. The tech industry funds AI ethics boards that produce guidelines without enforcement. The scientists are inside the system. They are just not the ones running it. They must refuse the invitation to be decorative and demand to be constitutive.
The Doctors
Global health governance has shifted in ways that weaken democratic accountability while concentrating policy influence. The World Health Organization, once a technical coordinating body, now operates within a broader ecosystem of what the International Center for Law & Economics calls "Democratically Deficient Organizations", intergovernmental institutions, philanthropic foundations, NGOs, and private actors that shape policy without meaningful public oversight. The move from assessed contributions to donor-driven, earmarked funding has severed the link between WHO priorities and member-state control. In its place, a small group of funders, most notably the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Bloomberg Philanthropies, now exert outsized influence over global health agendas.
The numbers are damning. The Gates Foundation made 640 grants worth $5.5 billion to the WHO between 2000 and 2024. Over half of these grants targeted polio and vaccination programmes, skewing the WHO's priorities toward the diseases that the foundation's founders cared about rather than the diseases that kill the most people. The WHO's budget is 80 per cent financed from private, earmarked contributions, including from the Gates Foundation, GAVI, the Wellcome Trust, and Bayer. A recent study describes how the Gates Foundation influenced WHO by paying for the cost and donating the time of management consultants to advise on the organisation's reform processes.
This is not philanthropy. It is governance without accountability. The Gates Foundation has become the WHO's second biggest source of funding, and its priorities are shaped by a small group of wealthy individuals who answer to no electorate. The doctors are already inside a global system. They are just not the ones running it. The medical tribe has the technical expertise, the humanitarian mission, and the professional networks to demand democratic governance of health as a public good, not a private fiefdom. But they must first recognise that their own institutions have been colonised by the very elite they are supposed to serve.
The Intelligence Agencies
The Five Eyes partnership links the intelligence agencies of Australia, Britain, Canada, New Zealand, and the United States through arrangements for sharing signals intelligence. It is the world's largest intelligence-sharing network, and its members have conducted espionage and information-gathering activities around the globe with little restraint. The ECHELON network, established during the Cold War to monitor the Soviet Union, evolved into a vast tool for monitoring global networks, covering everything from diplomatic pouches to private communications. The Five Eyes Intelligence Oversight and Review Council meets annually to coordinate cross-jurisdictional inspections, creating a veneer of accountability over a system designed for maximum secrecy and minimum oversight.
Mass surveillance programmes like ECHELON have created concerns that the Five Eyes infringe on individual privacy rights, violate civil liberties, and lead to overreach by intelligence agencies. Edward Snowden's leaks exposed the alliance's surveillance activities, sparking widespread debate about privacy and government oversight. But the debate has produced little change. Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, the legal basis for much of the Five Eyes' surveillance of non-Americans, was reauthorised by Congress in 2026. Civil society pressure reached another Five Eyes government during the 2026 debate, but the surveillance state expanded regardless.
This is a global surveillance apparatus. The question is not whether it will exist, but who will control it. The intelligence agencies have the capability to monitor the elite's networks of corruption, to expose the offshore finance architecture that enables tax evasion, to document the arms deals that fuel conflict, and to reveal the climate denial that dooms the planet. They have the technical capacity to be the world's most powerful mechanism for accountability. Instead, they serve as the elite's enforcers, spying on dissidents, journalists, and activists while the powerful operate with impunity. The intelligence tribe must choose: serve the elite or expose it.
The Police
INTERPOL's 2026–2030 Strategic Framework is built on three core pillars: be the trusted global information hub for law enforcement; provide world-class investigative and operational support; and serve as the global voice for law enforcement. Its vision statement is "Together against Crime." Reform proposals urge INTERPOL to prioritise procedural fairness and equality of arms for individuals over new obligations for applicants. The organisation's new Executive Committee includes France, the United States, Italy, Germany, Japan, and Canada, a composition that strengthens democratic representation on paper but does nothing to address the structural power imbalances that allow authoritarian states to weaponise the organisation.
Because INTERPOL's membership is roughly evenly split between democratic and authoritarian states, there are persistent concerns about authoritarian governments using INTERPOL for transnational repression. International media reports have revealed the extensive abuse of INTERPOL red notices by countries including Russia, Turkey, and Tajikistan to target political dissidents and human rights defenders. Freedom House has documented at least 11 incidents involving the use of INTERPOL Red Notices or diffusions for politically motivated purposes, including requests linked to Egypt and the delayed invalidation of a Turkmen notice affecting an activist associated with Pussy Riot. Amnesty International has called the misuse of INTERPOL red notices a "grave institutional failure".
The police are already global. They are just not democratic. A global law enforcement framework accountable to human rights law, rather than to INTERPOL's most powerful member states, would be a powerful instrument for justice. It could pursue war criminals, kleptocrats, and ecocide perpetrators across borders. It could enforce international labour standards, environmental regulations, and human rights law. Instead, it serves as a tool for authoritarian states to hunt their critics and for wealthy states to protect their allies. The police tribe must demand accountability for its own institutions before it can demand it for anyone else.
The Educators
UNESCO's education governance faces sustained criticism for normalising a one-size-fits-all technological future, reflecting deeper tensions rooted in its reliance on soft power and symbolic legitimacy rather than binding regulation. Studies analysed draw attention to the expressive weakening of UNESCO's humanistic orientation in favour of neoliberal visions. The organisation's one-country-one-vote decision rules, combined with a large numerical majority of developing countries, created an untenable situation, leading major Western states to promote neoliberal economic policies that espoused strict adherence to free-market principles. UNESCO's educational model has become linked to the neoliberal notion of "human capital" and economic development, valuing access to science and the job market while remaining silent on central issues of justice, equity, and democratic citizenship.
The critique goes deeper. Research on UNESCO and New Zealand education policies found that "safety" operates as a neoliberal mechanism to manage student behaviour and individualise social risk in the guise of altruism. The rhetoric of safety is used to justify surveillance, compliance, and the suppression of dissent in educational institutions. UNESCO's failure to address contemporary threats to academic freedom emerges from the appearance of neoliberal transnational governmentality as an inevitable social regularity that delimits what can be said and cannot be said about academic freedom.
International organisations perpetuate a "business-as-usual" approach, idolising economic growth while relegating environmental concerns to the back burner. Educators know that the current system produces compliant consumers, not democratic citizens. They are complicit until they refuse. The educational tribe has the power to shape the minds of the next generation, to teach democratic global citizenship rather than national compliance and economic utility. But it cannot do so while its institutions are captured by neoliberal ideology and its curricula are designed to produce workers rather than citizens.
The Lawyers
The International Criminal Court represents a genuine attempt at global judicial authority. It was embraced when it pursued African leaders, Balkan figures, and, more recently, Russian officials. But its promise of universal accountability has been weakened by geopolitical selectivity. Its jurisdictional limitations and dependence on United Nations Security Council referrals have disproportionately affected African states, while powerful nations and their allies remain untouchable. The study of the ICC's legitimacy crises argues that such inconsistent enforcement has strengthened perceptions of neo-colonialism and has made international criminal law appear to be a mechanism selectively imposed upon the Global South.
Rwandan President Paul Kagame has accused the ICC of dispensing "selective justice". Chad announced its withdrawal from the Court, accusing it of "clear selectivity" and an unbalanced focus on African countries. The inescapable fact is that the ICC has exclusively prosecuted Black and Arab Africans, with no prosecutions of perpetrators from the Global North to date. When the ICC issued a warrant for the arrest of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Senator Tom Cotton dismissed the court as a "kangaroo court" with no standing to bring charges, and Senator Lindsey Graham threatened: "If you help the ICC, we're going to crush your economy". The Trump administration has sanctioned nine of the ICC's 18 judges.
But the problem is not merely selectivity. A political economy analysis reveals that a global elite benefits from marketised global justice, while victims of conflict are instrumentalised and commodified. The legal tribe has the instruments of global justice. It lacks the enforcement power that only a democratic global sovereign could provide. A global judicial framework with universal jurisdiction over the elite's crimes, crimes against humanity, ecocide, corruption on a planetary scale, would be the most powerful mechanism for accountability ever devised. But it cannot exist while the ICC remains captive to the very powers it is supposed to hold to account.
The Journalists
The International Consortium of Investigative Journalists is a global network of 267 investigative journalists in 100 countries who collaborate on in-depth investigative stories. The Global Investigative Journalism Network supports accountability reporters from around the world, with a core mission to support and strengthen investigative journalism, especially from authoritarian regimes and marginalised communities. The ICIJ was awarded the Pulitzer Prize in Explanatory Reporting for its work on the Panama Papers, a collaboration of 376 journalists from 70 countries that produced the biggest journalistic investigation the world had ever seen.
But power imbalances within these networks often leave Global South journalists in subordinate roles. Research on the Global Investigative Journalism Network found that white speakers consistently dominate conferences, particularly in career-boosting session types. During the study period, only one Black woman spoke in the Data Journalism session. The "global" in global investigative journalism often means Western institutions setting the agenda while journalists from the Global South provide local access and labour. The ICIJ's own members acknowledge these imbalances.
Journalists can expose the elite. They cannot yet replace it. The journalistic tribe has the power to build a truly global accountability press, one that refuses to be intimidated by billionaire-owned media empires, that prioritises the concerns of the marginalised over the interests of the powerful, and that treats the elite's corruption as the story of our time. The Panama Papers proved that global collaboration is possible. The challenge is to make it democratic.
III. The Elite’s Strategy: Co-Optation, Surveillance, and the Manufacture of Permanent Crisis
The elite does not need to destroy these tribes. It needs only to neutralise them, to turn each into a junior partner in its own subjugation.
The World Economic Forum’s “Great Reset” is the model. It looks to entrench the power of those most responsible for the crises we face, a sleight of hand to ensure that things continue as they are, deepening the climate crisis and inequality. This is a “Great Corporate Takeover”. The health movement, the education movement, the food sector, all have been colonised by unaccountable corporate bodies that make decisions previously reserved for public institutions.
The elite’s endgame is a world of total surveillance, climate destabilisation, and permanent war. The global levers of power are controlled by “genocidal murderers, sex offenders, megalomaniacs, war criminals and rapacious billionaires”. AI is being used to assassinate leaders, military chiefs, and scientists, to communicate and surveil, to guide missiles and bombs, to make war itself autonomous. The fate of “enemies” is now being decided by algorithms, not rational persons.
Climate-change activists have been redefined as “domestic extremists” or “eco-terrorists,” with enormous resources devoted to identifying, tracking, and spying on them. The surveillance state is being built on the back of climate repression, using “ever more dangerous technologies” to ward off those forced to migrate from climate instability.
This is not a future scenario. It is the present trajectory. And it is being managed by elites who benefit from it.
IV. The Multipolar Trap: How a “Balanced” World Order Preserves Elite Power and Guarantees Planetary Collapse
There is a seductive narrative now circulating in the corridors of power: the unipolar moment is over, the world is becoming “multipolar,” and this new distribution of power will produce a more balanced, more representative, more just international order. The Global South is rising. Regional powers are asserting themselves. The West can no longer dictate terms. This is presented as progress. It is a lie.
The transition to multipolarity is not a threat to the global elite. It is the elite’s preferred operating environment. A world of competing great powers, fragmented governance, and permanent geopolitical rivalry is a world in which transnational capital faces fewer constraints, not more. It is a world in which arms manufacturers profit from every escalation, in which energy oligarchs profit from every price shock, in which tech billionaires profit from every surveillance expansion, and in which the ultra-rich shelter their wealth in offshore jurisdictions that no single nation can regulate. Multipolarity is not the death of elite power. It is its most favourable habitat.
The elite has always known this. The old Western-led order, for all its hypocrisy and violence, at least pretended to uphold a rules-based system. It created institutions, however flawed, that could be held to account. It produced international law, however selectively enforced, that could be invoked. It sustained a fiction of collective security, however cynically manipulated, that constrained the worst excesses of great-power behaviour. The new power elite, the autocrats, oligarchs, and tech billionaires described by Da Empoli as “cynical, ruthless, self-serving, and contemptuous of the rule of law and the old norms of democratic politics”, does not want rules. It wants chaos, because chaos is profitable. The old order is giving way to a world “without rules or enlightened leaders, plagued by violence and chaos”. This is not an accident. It is a business model.
The Arms Bazaar: How Multipolarity Becomes a Permanent War Economy
The most immediate consequence of multipolarity is the collapse of collective security and the eruption of a global arms race. SIPRI’s 2025 World Armaments Report concludes that the world is moving toward a “more armed, multipolar, and less governable international order”, one in which “global balances are being reshaped, strategic competition is intensifying, and security is shifting away from an international framework toward a web of interlocking regional ones”. Global military spending reached approximately $2.887 trillion in 2025, the eleventh consecutive year of growth. While U.S. spending dipped slightly, the rest of the world increased spending by 9.2%. Europe saw a 14% rise, the highest since the end of the Cold War. Asia and Oceania rose 8.1%, reflecting Asia’s emergence as a “military center of gravity”. This is not a transition to a more peaceful world. It is the militarisation of the entire planet.
Who benefits from this arms race? The answer is unambiguous. Whenever there is conflict, “private capitalist companies, business tycoons, and corrupt and hawkish politicians earn profits”. In 2026, defense company stocks reached record highs, generating $25 to $30 billion in profits while thousands of people died. The corporate and political elites exploit war for their own gain: “Ordinary people paid with their lives, wealth and future, while politicians and weapons corporations grew fabulously rich”. The global arms economy does not simply profit from conflict. It prepares for it, profits from it, and then calls the result realism.
This is not a bug of multipolarity. It is the feature. A multipolar world is one in which no single hegemon can impose arms control regimes, enforce non-proliferation treaties, or restrain regional arms races. The security dilemma becomes self-reinforcing: “Every time a country boosts its defence spending… This is what sets off the security dilemma, when all parties become less secure amid an arms race”. The elite does not need to cause these wars. It only needs to allow them to happen, and to position itself to profit from the carnage. The defence industry, Wall Street, Silicon Valley, and the oil majors control foreign policy “to maximize the wealth of the elite and access to global resources, supply chains, and key strategic points”. The wars chosen by the United States, wars for regime control, are “perpetual and lucrative for the war industries”.
The multipolar world does not constrain this dynamic. It accelerates it. In a world of multiple competing poles, every regional conflict becomes a proxy war, every arms deal becomes a strategic signal, every escalation becomes an opportunity for profit. The elite does not want a united global army. It wants a hundred competing armies, all buying weapons from the same handful of contractors, all enriching the same transnational capitalist class.
Nuclear Anarchy: The Multipolar Threat to Collective Security
The most catastrophic consequence of multipolarity is the collapse of nuclear stability. The world is entering a “new nuclear age,” in which nuclear weapons are returning to the fore of international statecraft “in ways unseen since the Cold War”. Major powers are issuing threats of nuclear strikes. China and North Korea are growing their arsenals. New prospects for proliferation are emerging from the Middle East to East Asia. The world has been “thrust into a new era of heightened nuclear risk”.
The Carnegie Endowment’s analysis is explicit: “From strained great power ties to complex multipolar dynamics and the precipitous decline of arms control, our coexistence with the bomb is becoming more complicated and perilous”. Unlike the Cold War, “a greater number of nuclear players and a plethora of new technologies, including AI and exotic new weapons, make the search for stability far from straightforward”. The multipolar nuclear order is not simply a Cold War with more actors. It is a qualitatively different and more dangerous system. Multipolarity “increases strategic complexity” and creates “systemic conditions of instability in which nuclear weapons become a cheap means” of pursuing security. The disappearance of the fear of nuclear weapons creates “significantly broader opportunities for their actual use”.
A multipolar world order has not yet been formed, but a multipolar world already exists. What is emerging is not stability through balance, but instability through fragmentation. The old bilateral arms control architecture, the INF Treaty, the Open Skies Treaty, the ABM Treaty, has been dismantled. New agreements are not being negotiated. The nuclear non-proliferation regime is facing its gravest crisis since its creation. The “new era’s first casualty could be the demise of the 20th-century nuclear non-proliferation regime”.
The elite benefits from this nuclear anarchy in ways both direct and indirect. Directly, defence contractors profit from the modernisation of nuclear arsenals, the development of new delivery systems, and the proliferation of missile defence technologies. Indirectly, the threat of nuclear annihilation serves as the ultimate justification for surveillance, repression, and the concentration of executive power. “Security” becomes the watchword for every expansion of state authority. The permanent threat of nuclear war is the permanent excuse for permanent emergency governance.
A united global army, accountable to democratic global governance, would have the authority and the capacity to enforce nuclear disarmament, to prevent proliferation, and to guarantee collective security. A multipolar world of competing nuclear-armed powers cannot do this. It can only manage the risk of catastrophe, and it is managing it badly. The elite knows this. It prefers it this way. A world of nuclear anarchy is a world in which the rich can build bunkers, the powerful can dictate terms, and the rest of humanity lives under the shadow of extinction.
Climate Governance Collapse: The Multipolar Failure to Save the Planet
The most insidious consequence of multipolarity is the paralysis of global climate governance. COP30, held in Belém, Brazil, in November 2025, was a case study in the failure of multipolar climate diplomacy. In a “multipolar world marked by rising geopolitical and trade tensions, with the United States, the world’s leading power, disputing climate change, and deep-rooted mistrust between the Global North and South, there was no crucial push to speed up implementation of the Paris Agreement commitments”. The agreement that emerged was “disappointing,” falling “short of expectations and the urgent needs of the climate crisis”. Major emerging countries, led by India and Saudi Arabia, maneuvered to spare fossil fuels, the main source of greenhouse gas emissions. The European Union found itself isolated in advocating for an end to coal, oil, and gas, but had already “shut the door on any new financial demands from the Global South from the outset, a stance that alienated those countries and soured other negotiations”.
This is what multipolar climate governance looks like: every nation defending its own priorities and development model, no nation willing to bear the costs of collective action, and the fossil fuel industry continuing to profit while the planet burns. The negotiations themselves have become an “echo chamber for countries’ political will” that “cannot go further than national decisions allow”. The purpose of the COPs has shifted from negotiating agreements to implementing commitments that no one is committed to implementing. Standing still, as Le Monde noted, “is already a step backward”.
Who benefits from climate governance paralysis? The fossil fuel industry, the energy oligarchs, the petrostates, and the transnational capitalist class that has invested trillions in carbon-intensive assets. The global elite does not want a democratic global governance that would have the authority to impose binding emissions targets, to phase out fossil fuels, to transfer technology to the Global South, and to hold polluters accountable. It wants a multipolar world in which climate action is voluntary, in which every nation can free-ride, and in which the costs of inaction are borne by the poor and the vulnerable. A multipolar world is the elite’s best defence against climate accountability.
The failure of climate governance is not a failure of multilateralism. It is a success of elite strategy. The elite has used the language of national sovereignty, development priorities, and “common but differentiated responsibilities” to prevent the emergence of any authority that could constrain its carbon-intensive business model. The multipolar world is not a world of balance. It is a world of impunity.
The Transnational Capitalist Class: The Elite That Multipolarity Cannot Touch
The most important insight about multipolarity is that it does not threaten the global elite because the global elite is not a national elite. It is a transnational elite, a class that owns capital across borders, that moves money through offshore jurisdictions, that holds citizenship in multiple countries, and that owes allegiance to no nation. The world has entered a third epoch, “with more power centers, sharper conflicts, and a global elite that both owns capital and takes home the highest salaries”. This is the new global capitalism. Transnational capitalists and globalising elites “found that they could increasingly aspire to detach themselves from local dependency… into webs of transnational capital”.
The elite does not need a unipolar world to thrive. It needs a world in which no single power can regulate it. It needs a world of competing jurisdictions, each bidding for its investment, each offering tax breaks and regulatory loopholes, each afraid to impose the kind of controls that would drive capital elsewhere. Multipolarity is not a threat to this system. It is the system’s logical culmination. The offshore finance architecture that fosters the rise of a “transnational elite supported by professional intermediaries” is not a bug of multipolarity. It is its enabling infrastructure. The global elite has built a world in which it can operate above and beyond the reach of any single nation-state.
This is why the elite fears democratic global governance, not multipolarity. A democratic global governance would have the authority to regulate transnational capital, to close offshore tax havens, to impose global minimum taxes, to enforce labour and environmental standards, and to hold the ultra-rich accountable. A multipolar world of competing nation-states cannot do any of these things. It can only compete to attract the elite’s capital, each nation lowering its standards to avoid capital flight. The elite knows this. It has actively promoted multipolarity as an alternative to democratic global governance, using the language of sovereignty, national identity, and anti-imperialism to obscure its real agenda.
The multipolar world is not a world of balance. It is a world of elite impunity.
V. The Choice: Democratic Global Governance or Extinction Governance
The user’s framing is correct. This is a war. Not a war of armies, but a war of sovereignty, a war over who writes the rules that govern the planet.
The elite will tell you that democratic global governance is impossible, that national sovereignty is sacred, that “globalists” are a conspiracy. But the sovereignty they defend is not the sovereignty of peoples. It is the sovereignty of capital, the right of billionaires to move money across borders without accountability, to extract resources without consent, to pollute without consequence.
The functionalist tradition in international relations understood something that the elite has deliberately obscured: integration in “low politics” (economic, scientific, technical) creates a political-technocratic elite that can act to shape cooperative frameworks. The question is whether that elite will be democratic or oligarchic.
The professional tribes have a choice. They can continue to serve as the technical appendix of an oligarchic world order, or they can assert their functional authority as the legitimate basis for a democratic global governance.
The military can refuse to fight wars for the elite and instead demand a unified command answerable to a global democratic assembly.
The scientists can declare that planetary boundaries are non-negotiable and that any government that violates them forfeits its legitimacy.
The doctors can refuse to operate under a global health system captured by private foundations and demand democratic governance of health as a public good.
The intelligence agencies can expose the elite’s networks of corruption and surveillance rather than serving as their enforcers.
The police can build a global law enforcement framework accountable to human rights law rather than to INTERPOL’s most powerful member states.
The educators can teach democratic global citizenship rather than national compliance and economic utility.
The lawyers can build a global judicial framework with universal jurisdiction over the elite’s crimes, crimes against humanity, ecocide, corruption on a planetary scale.
The journalists can build a truly global accountability press that refuses to be intimidated by billionaire-owned media empires.
This is not utopianism. It is the only realistic alternative to a future of climate collapse, algorithmic warfare, and total surveillance. The elite will fight it. They will call it “globalist tyranny.” They will weaponise nationalism, conspiracy theories, and the very democratic language they have hollowed out. But they cannot win if the tribes unite.
VI. The Stakes: What Happens If We Lose
If the professional tribes fail to assert democratic global governance, the elite will complete its project. The result will be:
Surveillance without limits: AI-driven monitoring of every citizen, justified by “security” and “climate emergency,” used to suppress dissent and enforce compliance.
Climate apartheid: A world of fenced, monitored communities for the wealthy, while the rest endure heat, famine, and migration.
Permanent war: Autonomous weapons systems controlled by algorithms, wars fought for resources and strategic advantage, environmental destruction as a weapon of war.
The end of democracy: Not the end of elections, but the end of their meaning. Citizens will realise that “change candidates” cannot alter the distribution of power, and they will stop believing in the system itself.
This is the world the elite is building. It is a world of extinction governance, governance not for human flourishing, but for the preservation of elite power in the face of collapse.
VII. The Call: Unite the Tribes. Break the Elite. Build the Alternative.
The professional tribes do not need to create a world government from scratch. They need to repurpose the networks they have already built, Five Eyes, the ISC, INTERPOL, the ICC, the ICIJ, and demand that they be accountable to a democratic global assembly rather than to the states and corporations that currently control them.
This is the functionalist path to democratic global governance: integration through the professions, sovereignty through the people.
The elite will resist. They will use every tool at their disposal, media, money, violence, division. But they have one fatal weakness: they are few, and we are many. They control the levers of power, but we are the machinery. Without soldiers, scientists, doctors, intelligence officers, police, teachers, lawyers, and journalists, the elite’s power is an empty shell.
The war is already underway. The only question is whether the tribes will fight it as tribes, fragmented, co-opted, and conquered, or as the united professions of a democratic global civilisation.
The choice is not between global governance and national sovereignty. It is between democratic global governance and oligarchic global governance. The elite has already chosen. The tribes must choose now.
If they do not, the next generation will inherit a world of surveillance, climate ruin, and endless war, a world governed not by laws, but by algorithms owned by billionaires. And the professional tribes will have no one to blame but themselves.
The hour is late. The enemy is known. The only question is whether there will be a war, or a surrender.
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